David R. Henderson David... so you want to bet that if we cut spending the GDP will fall to less than its 3 year average? That's not much of a display of confidence on your part. That would be making my point. Well actually the current 3 year average spending increase has been about 2.75%. My point is that if they cut spending significantly from the average GDP will go down more then the current CBO projection of 1.6%. So I would bet that if spending increases less than 2.5% then the GDP will be significantly less then its 3 year average of 2.13%.... say less than 1%. for the fiscal year. This assumes NO net hiring in the public sector. We could do $100 dollars to a favorite charity if you like.